Morning Cut Recommendation

Hello,

 

Yesterday being the day of Derivative Expiry, Europe / Dow futures weakness had limited impact and we closed just above the 5300 mark as expected. With expiry out of the way, it may be time to take a fresh look at how other markets are performing. US markets went down once again yesterday emphasizing how weak the internals seem to be at the current juncture.

 

With today being the last day for the week, Nifty may after opening weak be rangebound. 5335 on the higher side has now become a very crucial resistance level to be broken if the rally is to continue. A break above 5335 could herald a move to 5400. On the other side, a fall below the support zone of 5290 - 5300 can pull Nifty to the next support at 5250. Either way as of now, movement seems to be limited in nature and next big trend can get initiated once we move out of this zone.

 

Regards

 

Prashanth

Mythri Stocks & Shares Pvt Ltd.,

 

 

Market Outlook for today

Nifty as expected opened with a strong gap and while intraday movement was very limited, we did close above the 5335 level. Since US Markets which were pretty positive at the time of our close ended slightly negative, we shall open soft and the 5335 level will again come into play. On the hourly charts, RSI had gone into the Overbought zone and a small correction can pull in back into neutral territory.

With expiry coming up this week, OI in options front seems to suggest a close around the 5300 mark. Supports come into play at 5292 and 5250. On the higher side, Resistances are at 5400 and 5525.

Morning Cut Recommendation for 18-06-10

Nifty yesterday tested the 5285 level which we have been mentioning for some days now before retracing a bit. In making the high of the day, we also breached the highs for May, the first market to do so. We have in doing so also closed just above the 78.6% retracement of the whole fall from April 10. While a close above today's high augurs well for the Nifty in the medium term, in the short term, a correction is very likely since we are now have now closed positive for the last 7 days and the tempo seems to be slowing quite a bit.

Shorts can be initiated if Nifty moves below 5200 with a stop loss of above 5235. On the other side, if Nifty continues its run existing long positions can be held with a similar stop - Stop below 5235. On the higher side, Nifty faces resistance at 5335 and then at 5400. Supports for Nifty exist at 5215 and 5140. Nifty PCR for yesterday was 1.64

Regards

Prashanth

Morning Cut Recommendation for 17-06-10

Yesterday Nifty seemed to be finding pretty strong resistance at minor resistance points which can in one way point out to lack of buying strength.But that does not have to mean a bear view since 5215 / 5200 is yet to be broken. Markets generally correct after having a few days of continuous up run and out markets too seem to be heading in that direction.

With expiry coming up next week, unless US markets crash quite a bit, we may not see hugely significant downsides. There are 2 ways in how we can correct in the coming days. One will be a strong dip and another is one wherein we have a time bound correction rather than price correction which will be seen as small moves while market stays around similar levels before it takes off on either side. Longs in Nifty can be held with a stop below 5215. Nifty PCR ratio as of yesterday was 1.56.

Regards

Prashanth

Morning Cut Recommendation for 16-06-10

Nifty closed positive for the 5th day running and in the process also closed above the resistance level of 5215 mentioned yesterday. Generally speaking while there have been runs of more than 5 days fact is that more the number of continuous days, greater becomes the chances of a correction / flattening of trend. Its hence essential that we do not become overly optimistic but have a trailing stop to ensure that profits that are available do not get missed in a reaction. Yesterday markets moved and closed just above our 5215 level. Nifty now faces resistance at levels of 5285 and 5335. Supports come in at 5215 and 5140.

US Markets yesterday climbed strongly yesterday & in the process also crossed the 200 day EMA (& DMA). If the rally sustains, this can augur well or Indian markets as well since we have pretty high degree of co-relation. On average, historically whenever Dow has closed above the 200 day EMA, there is a probability of a move in excess of 5% from that point onwards.

Regards

Prashanth

Morning Cut Recommendation for 15-06-10

Nifty finally managed to open across the strong barrier of 5140 and came very near to touching our next level of resistance at 5215. The fact that the intraday blimp could not break 5140 now confirms the strength of 5140 as a short term support range. Trend both for Short Term and Medium Term looks mildly Bullish and any pullbacks can be bought with a stop loss below the 5140 range. If Nifty manages to cross 5215, next resistance shall occur at 5285 and then at 5335. Supports are at 5140 and 5090.

US Markets had yet another negative day after being in the green for most parts. Since we tag along US and in the short term have a high degree of co-relation with the US markets, its better to trade with one eye on India and one eye on the Dow futures.

Regards

Prashanth
Mythri Stocks & Shares Pvt Ltd.,

Market Outlook for 11th June 2010

ifty as anticipated gave a good pull back and closed a bit above the 100 day EMA as also the congestion resistance level of 5065 - 5075 mentioned yesterday. This now opens up the possibility of a move to 5140 and above that next level of resistance shall be around 5205. Nifty PCR for yesterday came in at 1.39

US markets surged on back of Jobs data numbers and hence SGX Nifty is showing a possibility of markets opening well above 5000 and possibly near the resistance of 5140 as mentioned above. Counter trend traders can take a risk of shorting the market if it opens with a strong gap with a stop of around 5150 with the hope that the gap open will get filled later during the day.

Short Term trend remains slightly bearish.

Market Outlook for today

Nifty had a very volatile session but at the end saw to it that it closed just a wee bit over the resistance level of 5000. 5065 - 5075 is the next range of resistance that should hold back Nifty a bit and above that we shall come across the 5140 resistance. On the lower side, 4960 is the level to be broken for markets to decisively enter a medium term bearishness with 4900 being a last level to hold for the bulls.

US Markets opened positive yesterday and at one point of time Dow was trading above 10000 but could not sustain the momentum and once again closed in negative zone. Compared to Indian Markets, Dow is already trading well below its 200 day EMA. This coupled with fact that there has been no major positive news in the offing has curtailed the ability of the markes to see new highs.

Short Term Trend for Nifty is Bearish though pullbacks may be seen.

Buy Cummins India above 590 for targets of 615 & 645 (Short Term)

Buy Thermax above 712 for targets of 745 & 812 (Short Term)

Regards

Prashanth
Mythri Stocks & Shares Pvt Ltd.,

Stocks to Watch for tomorrow

Nifty has broken above a Inverse Head & Shoulder giving a target of 5400. Resistance for Nifty are due at 5200 & 5285. Nifty can derive supports at 5065, 5035 & 4965. Short Term outlook is Bullish

Stocks to Watch.

NTPC -> Buy above 205 for targets of 208 & 212. Stop loss below 200.00

Indian Bank -> Buy above 232 for targets of 235 & 255 (Medium Term). Stop Loss below 226

HDFC Bank -> Buy above 1912 for targets of 1948 & 1990. Stop Loss below 1885

Patel Eng -> Buy above 382 for targets of 396 & 412. Stop Loss below 370


Disclaimers as Applicable.